01 December, 2012


Doesn't that sound crazy, and typical hyperbole of Narendra? May well be. But there is one area that truly concerns me.

Earlier all the anti-Modi voters usually went to the Congress. Now they have another option: the GPP of Keshubhai Patel. Even assuming that Modi's vote share falls in percentage terms, which I guess it would, the damage to the other two due to the division of opposition votes, may still see him through, and even with a larger number of seats, thanks to our imperfect first past the post principle.

Now take scenario two: Suppose he wins fewer seats than Congress but his tally together with that of GPP exceeds that of the Congress. The RSS bosses can easily arm-twist Keshubhai to merge with BJP with the sop of removing Modi [elevating him to the BJP's Presidentship easing Gadkari out]. Again Modi wins, even in defeat, by proxy.

Scenario three: Modi needs numbers and causes defection of more than a third GPP members with Nagpur's helping nudge. He remains the CM though a wee bit weakened.

And it is very unlikely that GPP and Congress will align. Yes, there is that remote possibility that Shankersinh Vaghela does something like he did before: cause a mass exodus from BJP/GPP into Congress. Most unlikely under the circumstances.

I would love if political pundits can demolish these apprehensions, and offer countering strategies.

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